TORONTO – February 2, 2016: Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, released its Q4 and annual 2015 market results today.
Sales Top 2014
A total of 20,753 new condominium apartments were sold across the Greater Toronto Area during 2015, besting 2014 by a margin of 82 sales. Annual sales over the past five years averaged 19,587 units, a period that includes a record high of 25,992 sales in 2011 and a 10-year low of 13,818 sales in 2013. A surge in new project openings in the fourth quarter drove sales up by 18% year-over-year to 6,366 units in Q4-2015.
Projects in Later Stages in High Demand
Sales in existing developments launched a year or more ago reached a record high of 9,541 units (equal to a 54% absorption rate), with sales of units under construction rising by 19% annually to 5,416 units. Units in new projects launched in 2015 were 59% sold by the end of the year, averaging 64% for new launches in the former City of Toronto. Overall, activity in 2015 was boosted by a 23% rise in 905 region sales to 4,871 units.
Standing Inventory Declines
Completions moderated to 19,702 units after hitting a record 21,133 units in 2014. The percentage sold at completion remained steady at 94% in 2015, while standing builder-held inventory at year-end declined to 1,427 units from 1,606 units a year earlier on increased sales for completed units. Total unsold inventory among all projects in development was virtually unchanged at 17,741 units — equal to 10 months of supply, a level representative of a balanced market. The share of all 108,012 units within active projects on the market that are sold increased to a record 84%.
Price Growth Consistent with Three-year Trend
The index selling price for active projects in development increased by 3% year-over-year to $579 psf in Q4-2015. Pricing for unsold units grew by the same annual rate to an average of $598 psf.
Record Year for Resale and Rental Activity
Resale activity for condo apartments hit a record 20,709 sales in 2015, growing 16% from 2014. A seller’s market for resale units emerged in the second half of the year, leading price appreciation to accelerate to 6.5% in Q4-2015 on a per sq. ft. basis. Rental activity within the condo market also reached a high of 27,164 units leased in 2015.
Urbanation Forecasts 21,500 New Condo Sales for 2016
“The market for new condos in the GTA is carrying a lot of momentum into 2016. Interest among investors and demand from end-user buyers is heating up, which we expect will lead to higher sales and increased price growth this year” said Shaun Hildebrand, Urbanation’s Senior Vice President.