Momentum Continues for the GTA Condo Market in Q3

 

TORONTO – November 01, 2019:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the GTA condominium market since 1981, released its Q3-2019 condominium market results today.

New condominium apartment sales in the GTA stabilized during Q3 at 4,703 units, edging up 1% from a year ago. The latest quarter followed a strong Q2, helping to push year-to-date sales up 21% to 16,873 units. Among the units launched for pre-sale in Q3, 63% were sold, remaining consistent with Q2 new launch absorption. The rising sales trend kept unsold inventory of 12,822 units 13% below its 10-year average. This resulted in further upward pressure on new condominium prices, with the index value for available units rising 6% year-over-year in Q3 to $1,036 psf. Price appreciation for new condos converged closer to the rate of increase for resale prices at 4% in Q3, supported by 12% growth in resale activity.

With only 2,556 units launched for pre-sale in the third quarter, which was down 48% from the 4,940 units launched in Q3-2018 and 33% below the 10-year average for Q3 launches (3,821), the market relied heavily on sales from projects that were launched in previous quarters. The absorption rate of existing inventory in previously launched projects reached 21% in Q3-2019, the highest level since the market peak in early 2017. On an absolute basis, the 3,101 units sold out of existing inventory in the third quarter represented 73% year-over-year growth in volume and came within 575 sales of the record set three years ago. This strength in existing project sales as the market enters the fourth quarter bodes well for activity in the final months of the year, as it will combine with higher sales from new launches which have ramped up so far in October. Current trends suggest that 2019 will represent at least the third or fourth best year on record for new condo sales in the GTA.

The continued momentum in the pre-sale market helped the number of units under construction in the GTA to reach a record 71,957 units in Q3-2019. After a strong first half of 2019, completions fell back to 3,038 units in the third quarter, surpassed by 4,228 starts. Construction delays are expected to shift a notable number of units that had been anticipated to complete by the end of the year into early 2020.

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