Toronto New Condo Market Levels Out While Resale Market Heats Up

TORONTO – November 5, 2015:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, released its Q3-2015 condo market results today.

A total of 4,031 new condominium apartments were sold across the Greater Toronto Area during the third quarter of 2015, down 13% from a strong Q3-2014 but directly in line with the 10-year average. Activity remained on track to reach approximately 20,000 sales in 2015, consistent with the market’s long-term trajectory and representing one of its best years on record.

The level of unsold inventory in development was unchanged year-over-year at 16,472 units, which measured against sales over the past 12 months equaled 9.8 months of supply — the lowest level in three years. The share of total units that were pre-sold in projects active on the market reached a record high 85% in the third quarter, edging up from 82% in Q3-2014 and 78% in Q3-2013. Contrary to other sources, the inventory of completed and unsold units experienced a mild increase of 241 units over the past year to 1,529 units. Of the 6,177 units completed in the third quarter, 93% were sold, slightly lower than the 95% average for new completions over the past year.

“The 20,000 a year pace the market has settled into appears to be the right level for the GTA. It’s consistent with household demand, while also leaving some room for the growing trend of new rental development” said Shaun Hildebrand, Urbanation’s Senior Vice President. “Nonetheless, the new condo market remains highly competitive, with new projects having to carefully weigh timing, product positioning, location, and pricing” added Hildebrand.

Price appreciation for new condos remained slow at 2% annual growth in the third quarter, reaching an average index level of $569 psf for sold units. Meanwhile, annual resale price growth accelerated to 7.3% to an average of $457 psf as sales increased by 15% year-over-year to a third quarter record of 5,574 units. Resale price growth has been boosted by the emergence of seller’s market conditions as the sales-to-listings ratio increased to 51% from 47% a year earlier. Lower mortgage rates, soaring single-family home prices and a low amount of resale listings in new projects have increased competition among buyers.

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