Condo Project Cancellations Hit Record High as Sales Fall to 35-Year Low

TORONTO – October 16, 2025:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the condominium market since 1981, released its Q3-2025 Condominium Market Survey results today.

New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) totaled 319 units in Q3-2025, the lowest quarterly total since Q3-1990. Sales were down 54% from a year ago and fell 92% below the latest 10-year average for Q3 periods. 

With the new condo market on track to record its worst year for sales in three-and-a-half decades, project cancellations have soared. In Q3-2025, 10 projects with a total of 2,499 units were cancelled, bringing the year-to-date total to 18 projects and 4,040 units cancelled. This already surpasses the previous record high for cancellations in 2018, when 15 projects totalling 3,598 units cancelled. Since the start of 2024, a total of 32 projects and 6,981 units have been cancelled, with an additional 20 projects totalling 4,187 units currently on hold for sales or in receivership with a high likelihood of cancellation in the near-term.

The removal of projects from the market and a lack of new launches resulted in a small reduction in unsold units. Total unsold new condo inventory across all stages of development decreased 2% from last year’s record high to 22,602 units in Q3. This included a 12% year-over-year decrease in unsold pre-construction inventory to 9,424 units and a 9% year-over-year decrease in unsold under construction inventory to 10,234 units. However, unsold units in completed projects increased 142% from a year ago to a record high 2,944 units, noting that this figure doesn’t include all units that were pre-sold but have ultimately failed to close. 

Of the completed and unsold developer-owned units available for purchase in Q3, asking prices averaged $1,199 psf, down 3.5% from a year ago and 9.6% below the level from two years ago. Despite these decreases, prices for developer-owned condos remained considerably higher than comparable resale prices in recently completed buildings, which averaged $867 psf in Q3[1]. There was an even larger price premium for unsold pre-construction units, which averaged $1,315 psf in Q3, highlighting the ongoing difficulties developers face with lowering prices to become competitive with resale units due to high costs.

The slowdown in the new condo market has led to a sharp downturn in construction activity in the GTHA. In the third quarter, only two projects totalling 614 units started construction, a 77% decline from a year earlier and 88% below the 10-year average. Year-to-date starts of 2,176 units represented a 28-year low.  At 59,204 units, the total number of condos under construction fell to its lowest level since Q4-2017, dropping 43% from the record high reached three years ago in Q3-2022 at 104,617 units.

“The condo market has clearly become depressed as it undergoes a difficult correction following excessive growth that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the lack of activity occurring today will surely lead to a lack of supply in a couple years, helping to restart the engine for the market.”

—Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation

ABOUT THE CONDOMINIUM MARKET SURVEY

Urbanation has been surveying the Toronto and surrounding region’s condominium market each quarter since 1981 through established relationships with the region's developers, brokerages, and lenders. In addition, our team of experienced analysts conduct ongoing field research to compile the industry's most in-depth coverage on every new condominium project in development across the region.

Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey subscription provides access to our historical online database of new condominium developments in the GTA, Hamilton and the rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including full project profiles and unit information, and market reporting metrics such as sales totals, absorption rates, inventory levels, average sold and unsold prices per sf, incentives, and more. Data is reported at the individual project level, with tools to generate regional, municipal, and submarket totals. Information on upcoming new condo project launches and future developments are tracked in our proposed database, which is also included as part of the Condo Market Survey subscription.

ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is a real estate consulting firm that has been providing market research, in-depth market analysis and consulting services to the real estate industry since 1981. Urbanation offers subscription services and custom market studies covering the new construction condominium and purpose-built rental apartment markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and in Ottawa. 

www.urbanation.ca                                                                              

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[1] Average prices in resale buildings registered within the past three years.