GTHA NEW CONDO SALES INCREASE OVER 50% IN Q2

HST REBATE AND BULK PURCHASES DRIVE ACTIVITY HIGHER

TORONTO – July 20, 2026:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the condominium market since 1981, released its Q2-2026 Condominium Market Survey results today.

New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) increased 52% annually to 702 units in Q2-2026, the first year-over-year gain since Q3-2023, as the elimination of HST and bulk investor buying helped pull the market up from its 35-year lows. Still, sales were 86% below the latest 10-year average for Q2 periods as buyers remained hesitant due to ongoing market uncertainty and the delayed rollout of Ontario’s enhanced HST rebate, with final rules not confirmed until June.

Nearly all the gain in new condo sales activity last quarter came from completed projects, where sales more than tripled from a year ago to 535 units, which included some large bulk sales to investment groups. Pre-construction sales moved in the opposite direction, dropping 80% annually to just 50 units. This reflected, at least in part, how the HST rebate is structured as it requires construction to start before March 31, 2027, and be substantially completed by December 31, 2029, creating a real risk that pre-construction buyers won’t qualify.

As developers awaited the full rollout of the HST rebate rules, there was little change in asking prices for completed and unsold new condos, which decreased 2% annually to an average of $1,186 psf in Q2. This represented a record-wide 43% premium over average resale prices of $830 psf in new projects registered within the past three years. However, for the new condo sales that did occur in Q2, prices were generally well below asking, as some developers became more aggressive in lowering asking prices and negotiating selling prices following the HST announcement, with bulk deals transacting at prices even below resale. 

Combined standing new and resale condo inventory in the GTHA totaled 12,106 units at the end of Q2, up only 1% from a year ago, the slowest pace of growth in three years. Completed, developer-held inventory rose from 4,826 units in Q1 to a record-high 5,001 units in Q2, 68% higher than a year ago. This was offset by a 21% year-over-year drop in active resale listings to a three-year low of 7,105 units — still 48% above the 10-year average, but the largest annual decline in four-and-a-half years. Combined months of supply across completed new and resale condos eased to 7.3, down from a high of 8.5 a year earlier and marking the first meaningful improvement in this measure since the current downturn began.

The pullback in resale supply has been broad-based by unit size, with smaller units also being absorbed rather than piling up, which is contrary to the often-cited narrative of a market flooded with small investor units. Units under 600 sf accounted for 20.4% of active resale listings in Q2, down from a high of 24.3% in 2024 and only modestly above the 19.6% share recorded in 2020. The breakdown of completed and unsold new condo inventory follows a very similar distribution by unit size as resale units, with 22% of units under 600 sf as of Q2. Most standing developer-held inventory (54%) is over 700 sf, with 57% of units in two-bedroom or larger layouts and an overall average unit size of 836 sf, aligning closely with broader resale demand.

As these early signs of stabilization emerge, the outlook for future supply is becoming more concerning. The new condo supply pipeline continued to shrink sharply, with combined pre-construction and under-construction inventory falling to 48,710 units in Q2 — down 37% from a year earlier and a 62% plunge from the high of about 127,000 units in 2022. With no new project launches for a second consecutive quarter, an additional 1,022 units cancelled in Q2 (bringing the running total since the start of 2024 to 11,653 units), and construction starts down to just 448 units, the pipeline is thinning quickly, pointing towards a market that will be substantially undersupplied within a few years.

“After more than four years of decline, it’s an important signal to see new condo sales respond to the elimination of HST and investor activity. That said, this improvement is coming off an extremely low base, and pre-construction demand remains largely dormant. With virtually no new units being added to the pipeline, condo supply is set to see its largest ever decline in the coming years.”

—Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation

ABOUT THE CONDOMINIUM MARKET SURVEY

Urbanation has been surveying the Toronto and surrounding region’s condominium market each quarter since 1981 through established relationships with the region's developers, brokerages, and lenders. In addition, our team of experienced analysts conduct ongoing field research to compile the industry's most in-depth coverage on every new condominium project in development across the region.

Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey subscription provides access to our historical online database of new condominium developments in the GTA, Hamilton and the rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including full project profiles and unit information, and market reporting metrics such as sales totals, absorption rates, inventory levels, average sold and unsold prices per sf, incentives, and more. Data is reported at the individual project level, with tools to generate regional, municipal, and submarket totals. Information on upcoming new condo project launches and future developments are tracked in our proposed database, which is also included as part of the Condo Market Survey subscription.

ABOUT URBANATION

Urbanation is a real estate consulting firm that has been providing market research, in-depth market analysis and consulting services to the real estate industry since 1981. Urbanation offers subscription services and custom market studies covering the new construction condominium and purpose-built rental apartment markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and in Ottawa. 

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