Standing Condo Inventory Hits Record High in Q1

TORONTO – April 16, 2026:  Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the condominium market since 1981, released its Q1-2026 Condominium Market Survey results today.

As the condo market downturn entered its fifth year, sales declined to a new 35-year low. In Q1-2026, 246 new condominiums were sold in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), down 52% annually and 94% below the 10-year average for Q1 periods (4,046 sales). For the first time in at least 30 years, there were no new project launches during the quarter. 

Despite sales at newly completed projects increasing 17% annually to a four-year high of 148 units, standing inventory continued to swell. A record-high 4,295 new condos were completed and unsold as of Q1, more than doubling the level from a year ago and nearly five times higher than two years ago. Based on sales during the previous 12 months, there was 92 months of completed new condo supply on the market, which doesn’t fully account for units that were presold but the buyer failed to close. Additionally, 8,629 unsold new condos were under construction and slated for completion in the next couple years. 

Developers lowered asking prices for standing inventory to an average of $1,189 per square foot (psf) in Q1, a 5% decline from a year ago and a 13% decrease from the high three years ago. However, resale units in comparable buildings registered within the past three years averaged a selling price of $859 psf in Q1-2026, a 25% drop from the market peak in Q1-2022. As a result, the gap between asking prices for developer-owned new condos and resale units remained at a record high 38% in Q1. However, the recently announced full HST rebate for one year is estimated to lower prices for unsold new condos by an average of approximately $100,000, reducing the price gap between new and resale condos down to 20%. 

A contributing factor to the downward pressure on resale prices is the record volume of condo completions in recent years, which is starting to moderate. In Q1-2026, a total of 7,201 units reached completion, a 21% decline from the same period last year. For the remainder of 2026, 14,649 units are scheduled for completion, bringing the annual total to 21,850 units — down from highs of 29,616 units in 2025 and 29,924 units in 2024. Completions are projected to continue falling to a total of 14,659 units in 2027 and 13,039 units in 2028. Only 2,029 units under construction have a scheduled completion for 2029.

A total of 1,254 units started construction in Q1, representing a six-quarter high. However, this was mostly attributable to one large project. A total of 963 units were cancelled in Q1, all of which are being converted to purpose-built rental. Since the start of 2024, a total of 11,424 condo units were cancelled, of which 4,064 units were converted to purpose-built rental, resulting in a net removal of 7,360 units. 

“After the condo market sank to a new multi-decade low in the first quarter, it was encouraging to see a number of new initiatives announced that should help improve sales, reduce inventory and get more construction underway. However, with market confidence still very fragile and demand fundamentals slowing down, the recovery process is likely to begin slowly”.

—Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation

ABOUT THE CONDOMINIUM MARKET SURVEY

Urbanation has been surveying the Toronto and surrounding region’s condominium market each quarter since 1981 through established relationships with the region's developers, brokerages, and lenders. In addition, our team of experienced analysts conduct ongoing field research to compile the industry's most in-depth coverage on every new condominium project in development across the region.

Urbanation's Condominium Market Survey subscription provides access to our historical online database of new condominium developments in the GTA, Hamilton and the rest of the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including full project profiles and unit information, and market reporting metrics such as sales totals, absorption rates, inventory levels, average sold and unsold prices per sf, incentives, and more. Data is reported at the individual project level, with tools to generate regional, municipal, and submarket totals. Information on upcoming new condo project launches and future developments are tracked in our proposed database, which is also included as part of the Condo Market Survey subscription.

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